I'm writing this Sooper Dooper NBA Playoff Preview with a heavy heart. Several weeks ago I was sure- sure- that the Cavaliers were going to make it. I pretty much had it guaranteed - and that's something, considering that I'm a Cleveland fan, and a Cleveland fan isn't inclined to guarantee anything (except snow in April). Hell, the Cavaliers were in first place for nearly two full months. For much of the season they looked like more than a playoff team- they looked like a playoff threat.
Being a Cleveland team in general- and the Cavaliers in particular- alas, they were only a threat to pull a massive el-choko down the stretch. They were 9-19 in a devastating 28-game stretch that allowed the Nets to come from way back to run them down. Long gone was the division title. Long gone was a possible home-court series in the first round. And finally, gone were the playoffs at all. Now the season is over, the Cavaliers have no lottery pick (thanks to Jim Paxson's trade for Jiri Welsch- a deal that shouldn't have gotten him fired, but shot), and the New York-centric A-holes at ESPN are talking a bunch of s--t about LeBron leaving Cleveland, even though he can't leave until 2008, even if he wants to. What a lousy way to end the season. What a typical way to end the season.
But enough of my Cleveland whining. The first-round matchups:
Eastern Conference
Miami (59-23) vs. New Jersey (42-40)
The Nets are a combination of Jason Voorhees, The Bride from Kill Bill, and the bad guy in that old Chuck Norris movie, Silent Rage. The league put a bullet in their brain, and their heart just kept on beatin'. You thought they were dead when they were 2-11? How about when they were 15-26 at the halfway point of the season? Or when they were 23-32 on February 23? You were wrong, and so was I. Now New Jersey, which always plays just good enough to lose in the springtime, is back again. They've got Vince Carter, maybe the biggest candy-ass in the history of organized basketball, actually counterfeiting like he has a heart. And what's more, Richard Jefferson looks as if he's going to 'give it a go' for the playoffs.
Which means Miami might just have a fight on its hands in this series. Before finishing the season on a three-game winning streak, the Heat hadn't been playing particularly well. Shaquille O'Neal has been banged up, but that probably won't matter- the sight of guys like Jason Collins and Brian Scalibrine (pound-for-pound the worst player in the league) trying to check him is going to piss him off to the point that any injury of his, severe or otherwise, isn't going to matter. At some point in this series Shaq is going to cram on Scalibrine, throw him into the photographers, and get the foul anyway. Could happen a bunch of times. Still, if R-Jeff is anywhere near healthy and in game shape, and if Vince Carter decides to pretend like he has a set for another week or two, the Nets are going to be 'to deal with' in this series.
Denouement- Heat in six. If the Cavaliers were in the eighth spot I would be saying, 'Heat in five'... and that would be generosity on my part. But the Cavaliers aren't in the eighth spot... are they?
Chicago (47-35) vs. Washington (45-37)
The Cavaliers weren't good enough to get themselves into the playoffs, but they may have given the Bulls the boost they needed way back on December 6. That's the night they went into Chicago and let the then-2-13 Bulls lay a 113-85 whuppin' on them. Since that evening, Chicago has gone 45-22. Chicago is a good points-bad points team. Good points: they play great team defense (lowest opposing field goal percentage in the league), they have depth, talent, and surprising saavy in the backcourt, and they have Ben Gordon, who just don't give a f--k, spraying circus shots from all over in the fourth quarter. Gordon has two buzzer-beating, game-winning shots against the Knicks alone this season. LeBron to this date has never hit a last-second shot to win a game (not saying Ben Gordon is better than LeBron; just pointing this out). Bad points: they're very, very young, and right now, they're not even close to being fully healthy. Eddy Curry is out for the playoffs, as is Loul Deng. The loss of Curry hurts in particular; the Wizards, the Second Coming of the old "Run TMC" Warriors teams, have zilch in the paint. Curry might have been able to dominate in this series. We'll never know now.
Washington has three great scorers (Arenas, Larry Hughes, and Antawn Jamison), and a bag of complimentary garbage. They have as little playoff experience as Chicago, so the youth of the Bulls probably won't be a factor. What this series will come down to is Ben Gordon vs. Gilbert Arenas. Which one of these guys is going to step up the most?
Denouement- Wizards in six. Gilbert Arenas is sick. The Wizards will go where he goes. I think he'll go off. Four quarters of Gilbert will trump one quarter of Ben, even if that one quarter is the all-important fourth.
Detroit (54-28) vs. Philadelphia (43-39)
Here come the Pistons. They screwed around for much of the seasons, but they bore down when it counted. That's what World Champions do, and Detroit is the defending World Champions, lest we forget. They're smokin' hot, too- before lazing through a final-game loss to the Bobcats, Detroit had a ten-game winning streak going. Philadelphia is the same as they always are- Allen Iverson and a bunch of spare parts, none of whom are remotely capable of taking over a series. Oh, and I heard they got Chris Webber somewhere along the line as well. Like that's going to matter here.
Denouement- Pistons in five. Iverson will win one game by himself... but that's it.
Boston (45-37) vs. Indiana (44-38)
C-Webb Won't Help Philly
Had the Pacers lost their final regular-season game, they would have been matched up with Detroit in the first round. That would have been all wrong- it would have been like the Soc's and the Greasers having the rumble in the first act of The Outsiders, instead of the third. Fortunately, Indiana pulled out their last game, bumping them up into the sixth spot, opposite Atlantic Division Champion Boston. The Pacers are mentally tough, have playoff experience and the wherewithall to overcome immense amounts of adversity, and they can shoot. Hey, they're the Bizarro Cavs!
The Celtics were dragging along with a 27-28 record when they traded for Antoine Walker. They were 11-2 in their first thirteen games with 'Toine back in the fold, locking up the Atlantic Division crown and positioning themselves as a team that actually has a chance to win in the playoffs, not just show up. To win, however, someone in Boston's heretofore-nonexistent frontcourt is going to have to step up and at least make Jermaine O'Neal work for his buckets.
Denouement- Pacers in six. Even without Ron Artest (remember him?), Indiana is a powerhouse disguised as a low seed.
Western Conference
Phoenix (62-20) vs. Memphis (45-37)
We haven't seen opposites like these on the same stage since Paula Abdul and M.C. Skat Kat were cavorting together on those cartoon stairs back in the day. The Runnin' Suns are tops in the league in points-per-game average at 110.4. That's nearly seven full points-per-game ahead of runner-up Sacramento. Memphis is fourth in the league in opposing points-per-game at 91.1. Phoenix ran up a league-best victory total with a top-heavy player rotation: Steve Nash, Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion, and Amare Stoudamire accounted for something like 85% of the team's point total. Nobody on Phoenix's bench averages more than 8.8 points per game. Memphis does it with depth; their starting five accounts for only about 65% of the team's total points. Five members of the Grizzlies' bench average at least 7.7 points per game. By contrast, only two of Phoenix's bench players average more than 7.0 ppg. Although Memphis didn't play well down the stretch (1-5 in their last six games), they're an intriguing team because of their depth. Also intriguing is the question of how well the Suns' helter-skelter style and lack of depth will translate into playoff success. Yet more intrigue: the matchup between Pao Gasol and Amare Stoudamire.
Denouement- Suns in seven. This is going to be a dogfight. I think.
Dallas (58-24) vs. Houston (51-31)
Yee-haw! It's the Mavericks and Rockets in a Texas-sized first-round matchup between two 50-win teams. After several years of running-and-gunning themselves into playoff oblivion, the Mavs have re-invented themselves as a defensive group. They also played well when they had to- since Avery Johnson took over the head coaching job on March 19, Dallas is 16-2. The Rockets, behind the micromanagement of Jeff Van Gundy, have given up just 91 points per game, and have been one of the best teams in the league since the beginning of December; after starting out 6-11, Houston has gone 45-20. The Rockets could win this series. Tracy McGrady can dominate a game like just about no other player in the league, and the playoffs are the perfect setting for a hyper-controlling, defensively fanatical, pain-in-the-ass like Van Gundy. Avery Johnson has been coaching for barely a month. He's plenty sharp, but will he wilt under the playoff pressure?
Denouement- Rockets in six. Avery is a little green for my taste.
San Antonio (59-23) vs. Denver (49-33)
Remember when the Cavaliers were in first place, Denver was way under .500, and we were all horselaughing about LeBron's 'curve' versus Carmelo's? You don't? Well, I do. Those days are long gone. In their last forty games, the Nuggets are 32-8. Wow. That having been said, Carmelo is still a punk.
When they're healthy, San Antonio is the best team in basketball, bar none. They play the best defense, giving up just 88.4 points per game. They have the best overall player in Tim Duncan. In Tony Parker and the sick, sick Manu Ginobili, they may have the best backcourt in the game- the most versatile, at least. They rebound. They score inside and out. And they hold it down at home, with a 38-3 record in the Hemisfair Arena, or the Alamodome, or wherever it is they play down there. The only question for this club concerns the health of Tim Duncan.
Denouement- Spurs in five. George Karl has done a helluva job, but Denver's not quite ready for prime time yet. And I have a feeling the Big Fundamental will be juuuuust fine.
Seattle (52-30) vs. Sacramento (50-32)
Gilbert Arenas- Sick
Once upon a time, Seattle was the 'flavor' of the league. The hot-shooting Sonics opened up with a 17-3 record, held down first place in the Northwest Division all season, and were all the way up to 48-20 on March 25. Then came the closing skid- a dismal 4-10 record to finish the season, hardly the stuff of champions. Seattle is a one-trick pony- they shoot. And shoot. And shoot. And when they don't shoot... they lose. Could be trouble in the playoffs. As for Sacramento, it's the same old story with them- 50 wins, no realistic chance of winning the title, hopin' and prayin' for the return of Bobby Jackson, who always seems to be hurt. One thing we can be sure of- if the Kings lose in the first round, it won't be because they don't have Chris "Playoff Choker" Webber anymore. Frankly, I don't think either of these two teams deserves to win. This series resembles a Democratic Presidential Primary from 1976, with Seattle playing Henry Jackson and Sacramento playing Morris Udall. A couple of blahs, ya know?
Denouement- Kings in six. But to hell with them anyway.
I'll be back with a Sooper Dooper Second-Round Preview when this opening round is over, which should be in about a year or so. Enjoy the Playoffs! I know I won't!
Yup, Spurs In Five Posted: 4/27/2005by: Jesse L. Still could happen, Kyle. And Darko made the playoffs too. If you think LeBron's a loser, you should see the dogs--t guys that play around him. The Cavs are the Hawks + LeBron.
Kings in 6? Posted: 4/26/2005by: preston this is one of the only series that could be a sweep (that is the Kings getting swept) Sac is a shell of a team that used to be good. Vince the Candyass Posted: 4/25/2005by: Frank DeBona You're right on about good ol' VC. He pussed out in Toronto cause they didn't let him play GM last summer and I'm sure he'll do the same in Jersey once Kidd gets smart and demands a trade this summer.You gotta keep kissing his purple ass or he'll once again magically slip from 32PPG to 16. Oh yeah, don't piss off his butt ugly mother Michelle either or it'll be 10PPG. Shaq will show him in 4 how a true superstar plays the game. Jack Posted: 4/25/2005by: Shiiiit Swap Melo for Lebron and the Nuggets are the best team in the lead and the Cavs are the worst. Spurs in 5 huh? Posted: 4/25/2005by: Kyle Good call on the Nuggs/Spurs series. The Nuggs went in and bitch-slapped the Spurs on their own court, and they'll do it again. Carmelo may be a punk, but I'll take a punk that gets me to the playoffs over a loser like Lebron.
