Five months ago, eight of us here confabulated the first-ever Phat Phree Sports NFL Preview. We gave out advance warning that this was a hopeless, quixotic quest. We told you we were full of shit, ahead of time. That's something other NFL Previews don't do, people.
Were we? Full of shit?
Sort of. Nostradamus was full of shit ('Hisler'- yeah right). But we did okay.
Just for shits and giggles, well compare our picks to that of ESPNs eight designated solons , in terms of how many division winners we picked correctly:
Paul Pasquarelli: 2-for-8 division winners John Clayton: 2-for-8 division winners Chris Mortensen: 3-for-8 division winners Michael Smith: 2-for-8 division winners Joe Theismann: 1-for-8 division winners Greg Garber: 2-for-8 division winners Merrill Hoge: 2-for-8 division winners Sal Paolantonio: 2-for-8 division winners The Phat Phree: 5-for-8 division winners- we count as one. Like John Facenda on the '68 Colts, we played as one intense man, on the edge of excellence
Some of our more noteworthy accomplishments, vis--vis the hired guns at the Worldwide Leader:
- The Phat Phree correctly diagnosed the Giants and Bengals as 2005 division champions. None of ESPNs experts picked either team to win its division. - The Phat Phree correctly picked the Broncos to win the AFC West. Of the ESPN experts, only Chris Mortensen picked Denver. - The Phat Phree correctly picked the Jaguars to qualify for the AFC Wild Card. Only Paul Pasquarelli did the same.
This, for once, isn't a dig at ESPN. To wit:
- We both made an absolute clusterfuck out of the NFC. The fall of the Eagles, which in retrospect seems predestined, pulled the rug on almost everyone in the prediction game, from the highly-paid ESPN employees to the boys down at Courtesy Auto World , almost all of whom had Philly being directly involved in the power in the NFC. We got that part- the part about the Eagles bringing a weaker game- right, here at the Phat Phree. What we didn't forsee was the almost total collapse- first losing season since '99, Mike MacMahon at quarterback down the stretch, and whatever else went wrong in Philadelphia. The fall of the Eagles meant a vacuum in the NFC, and we got sucked in.
Who can predict the NFC year-to-year with any degree of accuracy these days? We know this is the hottest of hot air we're slinging, but give us something to work with. Chicago going 11-5? Tampa going 11-5? Seattle blowing up? The Falcons crumbling down the stretch? Who can call this? This writer is glad he didn't have to.
NFC Review
The NFC this year was the weak sister of the NFL. Over in the AFC, the Colts threatened to run the table, the Bengals emerged as a genuine threat, and the Jags grabbed a wild card with the third best record in the entire league. Meanwhile, the Boys in the Blue conference managed to have a team run away with its division despite spending most of the year under the leadership of the QB with the leagues worst rating; their defending conference champ miss the playoffs AGAIN; and just complete awfulness in places where it was expected (San Francisco), where it wasnt (Green Bay), where it was helped by the league and Mother Nature (New Orleans), and where it needs no help (Arizona).
Unfortunately, we at The Phat Phree werent much better in our predictions. Not only did we hit on only one of four division champs, and two of the eventual six playoff qualifiers, we had the other champions at 3rd, 4th, and 4th places. Our non-winning predicted champs finished in 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd, but one of those 2nds doesnt really count when the team ended up with a 6-10 record.
Our projected playoff participants, by record:
New York Giants (10-6) * Minnesota Vikings (10-6) * Atlanta Falcons (10-6) * St. Louis Rams (8-8) * Carolina Panthers (9-7) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
*- Division Champion
Generally speaking, it became clear why were making our living writing, not betting. To let those of you who did ride a wave of prognosticatory (its a word, dammit) success to piles of cash revel in our failure, we present for you a review of how we did picking the NFC.
NFC WEST Predicted Order Of Finish (actual record/place in parens) St. Louis Rams 8-8 (6-10 / 2nd) Arizona Cardinals 8-8 (5-11 / 3rd) Seattle Seahawks 7-9 (13-3 / 1st) San Francisco 49ers 3-13 (4-12 / 4th)
What we got right: The team is a fucking disgrace, and Dennis Erickson was every bit as ineffective as Herbert Hoover. This was, of course, written about the 49ers, who not only had a horrendous season under the suit-less Mike Nolan, but couldnt even manage to win the Reggie Bush sweepstakes in the end, spitting the bit at the end of the season beating St. Louis and then taking out the Texans in overtime to fall to 6th or 7th in the draft.
(Runner up: Marc Bulger HAS to stay healthy re: the Rams, who saw their starting QB fall, and their fate tumble with him.)
What we got wrong: Seattle does have a chance to take the division if the other two contenders fall off due to injuries or other problems, but I wouldn't put any money on them. While the other so-called contenders did have problems either with injuries (St. Louis) or just not being crap (Arizona), Seattle would have easily taken this division with or without a healthy Marc Bulger.
What the posters got right: Arizona will loose [sic] 10 or more games this season bphats. He may not be able to spell, but bphats saw through the Cardinal hype machine
What the posters got wrong: Seattle sucks. End of story bphats. If only he had quit while he was ahead.
NFC NORTH Predicted Order Of Finish (actual record/place in parens) Minnesota Vikings 10-6 (9-7 / 2nd) Green Bay Packers 8-8 (4-12 / 4th) Detroit Lions 7-9 (5-11 / 3rd) Chicago Bears 5-11 (11-5 / 1st)
What we got right: The Pack offense will go as far as QB Brett Favres aging right arm and RB Ahman Greens powerful legs will take them. OK, we had those things taking them to 2nd place, but the truth is that Green getting hurt was devastating to the Packs chances, though perhaps not as much as Favres attempts at heroics.
(Runner up: As a group, the Bears defense is probably tops in this division. The Bears preview was remarkably prescient, from the love for the D to the foreseeing of Kyle Orton as starter. If only wed seen them winning games.)
What we got wrong: Culpepper will no longer have to deal with the childish behavior of Moss, and will only grow as the teams general on and off the field. This was almost correct, except for the fact that Culpepper was awful when he was in there, and the team only rebounded to respectability when he was replaced by Brad Im only going to Canton by Greyhound Johnson.
What the posters got right: If [the Packers] win eight games, I'll buy M.Thomas a plane ticket to Wisconsin, feed him beer and cheese curds, and shag him till it bleeds. - Jerome Fortunately for M. Thomas, there was no need for blood, because the Pack indeed stunk worse than the brew vats at Milwaukees Best.
What the posters got wrong: The Lions will finish in first, and will flourish under Joey Harrington's new found confidence. Skip. Perhaps this was Mr. Bayless, because thats one of the few people Ive heard proclaim so incorrectly with so much gusto.
NFC SOUTH Predicted Order Of Finish (actual record/place in parens) Atlanta Falcons 10-6 (8-8 / 3rd) Carolina Panthers 9-7 (11-5 / 2nd) New Orleans Saints 7-9 (3-13 / 4th) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11 (11-5 / 1st)
What we got right: [Aaron Brooks is] the catalyst either way. Considering Mr. Brooks finished ahead of only J.P. Dont Call Me Carson Palmer Losman in QB rating, and the Saints were gawdawful, this was right on the mark.
What we got wrong: Here are 3 reasons why Vick can take the Falcons deep into the playoffs. Ill spare you the reasons, but suffice it to say that despite Mr. Vicks pleas, he didnt make anybody shut up about his passing strength.
What the posters got right: im not a panthers fan, but how can you talk about their offense and not even mention delomme, foster and steve smith sigh. Though sigh doesnt know where the Shift key is, he was right that those three players, especially Steve Smith, would be the key for the Panthers in their Wild Card run.
What the posters got wrong: I hope that Thomas Davis will be starting over Brashir by the end of the season. Davis finished the season as a backup, with only 38n tackles and 1.5 sacks, but the Panthers still managed to have the 4th best defense in the league.
NFC EAST Predicted Order Of Finish (actual record/place in parens) New York Giants 10-6 (11-5 / 1st) Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 (6-10 / 4th) Dallas Cowboys 8-8 (9-7 / 3rd) Washington Redskins 5-11 (10-6 / 2nd)
What we got right: And Eagles management will be left wondering if it was worth the trouble they bought when they rolled into TOs World of Speed. We may not have had the final meltdown result dead-on, but we were one of the few places that said the TO problems were going to blow up in a nasty way.
What we got wrong: [The Redskins] offense hasnt improved at all, and their defense will regress, if anything. Basically the entire pan of the Redskins was off, as the Skins got their stuff together, Brunell rediscovered his form, and Old Man Gibbs found his way back into the playoffs.
What the posters got right: I stopped reading the article completely when you said the G-men added no one of note on defense...if your gonna write a preview column at least know that Antonio Pierce was one of the best LB's in the NFL last year. 10. The absence of Pierce from the Giants preview was a big mistake, considering Pierce followed up his outstanding 2004 season with another big campaign, finishing with 99 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and a couple fumble recoveries.
What the posters got wrong: tried to give it the benefit of the doubt, but after you read from the other NFL Review columnists, and then see the Giants at the top, you wonder if this guy has even WATHED the NFL. You. Well, Yo, I can tell you from personal experience that the writer not only watches the NFL, but that the Giants finished on top.
AFC Review
It was a year of relatively few surprises in the rugged American Football Conference this season. Sure, the Bengals turned a lot of heads by putting together their first winning season in fifteen years, and the Broncos didnt implode from the sudden injection of the ex-Browns into their roster, but all in all, the results in the AFC were pretty close to the chalk. Standard-bearing powerhouses either dominated all season (Indianapolis), or survived early hiccups and matured to dominance by the end of the season (New England and Pittsburgh). All four of the conferences remaining surviving teams were playoff qualifiers in 2004, and with the exception of Denver, all made it to the Divisional round last season as well. Contrast that with the NFC, where none of last seasons Divisional Playoff participants even made the playoffs at all.
So we AFC predictors had it a little easier than our compadres in the NFC, and we took advantage at the absence of flux. Taking the projected records into account, we correctly predicted all six playoff participants. Were riding the wave of AFC pre-eminence. All we got wrong when it came to the cream was the order of the playoff teams:
New England (13-3) * Cincinnati (11-5) * Denver (11-5) * Indianapolis (11-5) * Pittsburgh (10-6) Jacksonville (10-6)
* Division Champion
Thats not bad for a bunch of fuckin amateurs, is it? True, the picks for New England and Indy were relatively easy. But Cincinnati and Denver were 50-foot half-court shots to win their divisions, and even Jacksonville wasnt taken all that seriously at the beginning of the season. Well probably make ourselves look like idiots next season, so well bask in the glory of our collective savvy for a minute
Ah. Anyway:
AFC EAST Predicted Order Of Finish (actual record/place in parens) New England Patriots- 13-3 (10-6/1st) Buffalo Bills- 9-7 (5-11/3rd) New York Jets- 6-10 (4-12/4th) Miami Dolphins- 2-14 (9-7/2nd)
What We Got Right: Their season is as dead as that new stadium they tried to build in Manhattan. Thats the assessment of the Jets, which of course turned out to be almost entirely correct. Chad Pennington got hurt (again), Curtis Martin missed out on 1,000 yards for the first time since 1972, and as it turned out, the J-E-T-S slipped further and faster than even we anticipated.
What We Got Wrong: youre usually supposed to pick one terrible team to turn it around. Im sorry to disappoint you, but it wont be the Dolphins. Theyre horrible! And of course, the Dolphins turned out to be not nearly as horrible as we thought. But then again, we dont recall seeing anyone, even Catherine Bell, projecting a 9-7 finish for the Fins.
What the Posters Got Right: glad to see a real pats fan... but the Dolphins will win at least 6 games- me. Not me, but a poster named me. These damned names, sheesh. Anyway, we stand corrected. We dont know how it happened, but the Dolphins did reach and breach five-hunny in 05. Nice work, me, whoever and wherever ya are.
What the Posters Got Wrong: Losman is a step in the right direction from Bledsoe.... also they will not bench Losman very quickly when they traded into the 1st round a year ago to obtain him- SK. Well maybe. Mularkey did wait for Losman to go for 75 yards passing twice, in a row, before he called on Kelly I Even Wear the Same Number as Don Strock Holcomb. That was five whole entire weeks into the season, so...
AFC NORTH Predicted Order Of Finish (actual record/place in parens) Cincinnati Bengals- 11-5 (11-5/1st) Pittsburgh Steelers- 10-6 (11-5/2nd) Baltimore Ravens- 9-7 (6-10/3rd) Cleveland Browns- 5-11 (6-10/4th)
What We Got Right: if the Bengals manage to dictate the tempo with their offense, it will force opponents to play catch up and throw into one the teeth of their defensive strength- the secondary, one of the most promising groups in the league. Sure enough, Cincinnati led the NFL in interceptions, by a whopping margin of 31 to 19 for the second-place Broncos.
What We Got Wrong: The running game probably wont be a problem, with Jamal Lewis back from under the shadow of league suspensions and jail terms. Wrong. Jamal Lewis is cooked. Weve heard jail will do that to a man.
What the Posters Got Right: Love them, but they are piss-poor.- matt, on the Browns. On-point.
What the Posters Got Wrong: Can everyone please stop jerking off to the Bengals until they prove they can manage a winning season???- BrownsFan. The sentiment was correct; the implied prognostication was not. Cincinnati performed exactly the way we predicted, right down to the record.
AFC WEST Predicted Order Of Finish (actual record/place in parens) Denver Broncos- 11-5 (13-3/1st) Kansas City Chiefs- 9-7 (10-6/2nd) Oakland Raiders- 8-8 (4-12/4th) San Diego Chargers- 7-9 (9-7/3rd)
What We Got Right: Look for San Diego to hang around, but not be able to close out at Kansas City and in their season finale at home versus Denver. And what happened? The Chargers hung around, and then dropped their last two at Kansas City and at home against the Broncos. Fucking soothsayers, we are.
What We Got Wrong: Look for them to sneak into the playoffs in the seasons final week. Them is the Kansas City Chiefs, who as it turned out were knocked out of the playoff chase in the seasons final week, despite a 10-6 record. It was a brave shot, in the Scottish football sense, but like Dick Vermeils last hurrah, we came up just a little bit short.
What the Posters Got Right: Anyone who thinks that the Raiders will have a better season then the Chargers is on crack.- K-dog. Concise, to the point, and true. San Diego was a disappointment, for sure but Oakland re-invented bad this season.
What the Posters Got Wrong: every article you write blows!!- dont worry about it. Wrong; its self-evidently not true.
AFC SOUTH Predicted Order Of Finish (actual record/place in parens) Indianapolis Colts- 11-5 (14-2/1st) Jacksonville Jaguars- 10-6 (12-4/2nd) Houston Texans- 8-8 (2-14/4th) Tennessee Titans- 7-9 (4-12/3rd)
What We Got Right: What can be said about Houstons offensive line, other than it leaks like a colander?- Not the most daring of takes, but still correct for all that. Too bad we didnt follow up on the theme.
What We Got Wrong: If their defense can pull themselves together and just hit people like Del Rio wants them to, then they might make the playoffs this year. If they do, look for them to hammer whoever they play in the first round. We were Dead Solid Perfect on Jacksonville making the playoffs. But as it turned out, once they got there, the Jags werent the hammer, but the nail.
What the Posters Got Right: Are you serious? Who are they going to lose to?- Dorf, in a post entitled, disbelievingly, 11 Wins For the Colts? Sure enough, 11 wins turned out to be a somewhat conservative estimate for Indianapolis.
What the Posters Got Wrong: Officially the most retarded thing I've ever seen the human mind come up with in quite some time.- Matt (not to be confused with matt) hating on us referring to Adam Pac-Man Jones as Wack-Man. That's the biggest dissent we found. Indianapolis has performed up to everyone's expectations. So far.
Phat Phree Staffers Jesse Lamovsky and Michael Hagesfeld collaborated on this piece.
RE: FURGESON Posted: 1/13/2006by: Kris For all of you that mentioned the Texans trading down and getting Furgeson from VA, I couldn't agree with you more. Not only does Houston's OL allow more penetration then Jenna Jameson, but I played against Furgeson in HS and he was a brick shithouse then. He's from Freeport, NY on Long Island and my senior year we scrimmaged them. My high school iss a power house on the Island (most LI Championships in history) and he was by far the toughest player I've ever had to hit. I was a big boy then (6'2" 245) and he was playing DT. I pulled and attempted to block him. The moment he hit me my knees buckled and I crumpled like a little rag doll. I've never been hit like that on a football field in my life. nicely done Posted: 1/13/2006by: bphats How do I misspell lose? That must have been a tyypo.
Also the Seahawks do suck. That was more of a general statement then one pertaining to this season in particular. I mean the best player in their franchise history was Steve fucking Largent.
sigh getting a shot-out Posted: 1/11/2006by: sigh HOLLA AT YOUR SHIFT KEY!!!!!!!! Tom A Posted: 1/11/2006by: Jesse L. You're right. We would have done this even if we hadn't been so, so solid with our picks.
Still, the fact that Haggie and I came out looking like the Sons of Jeanne Dixon didn't hurt. We don't mind showing everyone how smart we are, ya know. Mortimer Posted: 1/11/2006by: Jesse L. Yikes. Tough call. I'd be tempted to make an Archie Manning Pick- select VY not only because of his talent but because of his local ties. That might not be the best idea; besides, picking another quarterback with the 1st pick pretty much ensures they'll get rid of David Carr... and get nothing for him.
IMO Reggie Bush wasn't overwhelmed by the Texas defense so much as 1.) he was psyched out by his ill-advised lateral and never really got his head back in the game, and 2.) Petey was having so much success blasting LenDale White up the middle he stuck with it. Better to run right at a smaller, fast defense than go around it. I don't think this game should be taken as a portent, in terms of how Reggie will do in the pros. I think he'll be great.
You know what Houston should do? Try and trade down a couple spots, and grab D'Brickshaw Ferguson. If any team needs a franchise left tackle, it's the Texans. Don't know if this is doable, though.
BTW Mortimer- you picked the Seahawks to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC West Preview. As of today, you look like a farkin' genius. Nice take. Glad Posted: 1/11/2006by: matt I was right about something, albeit the Browns though. Good Job guys-I look forward to next year where the Browns will improve to an 8-8 record (well 7-9 maybe) Nice Work, Guys Posted: 1/11/2006by: Tom A Stepping up after the fact and assessing your picks is admirable (I even think you would have done so if you had not fared as well).
I like your putting the posters to the test, too.
I wonder if youse guys could pull up and assess the picks of the dumbest "brilliant" NFL guy ever, SI's Paul Zimmerman. He couldn't correctly predict when the New Year would begin... Go Skins! Posted: 1/11/2006by: Mike Playing with house money in Seattle now. Not expecting a win, but damn it, it could happen. 1st Pick Posted: 1/11/2006by: MEH OK, I'm not Jesse, but I'll take a stab anyway.
1st off, I would trade it, not moving so far down you can't get the OL stud from VA in the 1st round, and maybe another one or two later on. It's painfully clear that WR and QB aren't your true sore spots, its the guys in front of them.
If I had to pick first, I would go with one of the QBs. For all the Sayers talk about Bush, and he is amazing in space, the fact that he couldn't get to the corner against Texas worries me. The Horns were the first real defense he faced, and he failed the test, and the defensive speed is a heck of a ot better in the pros. I fear that Mr. Bush will be either amazing, or a bust, and I'd be worried about his busting.
I'm stuck on the fence of Bush v. Leinart, I must admit.
Texans Posted: 1/11/2006by: Mortimer Duke I know the subject heading "Texans" probably won't grab much attention, but the big controversy down here in Houston is who to take with the first pick. I gotta admit to being totally on the fence between the two obvious candidates (Cavallari-fucker ain't one of them). What would Jesse do?
NFC Review
AFC Review
