 | McNabb Can Beat You Any Way |
Just a few musings on the matchups we'll see in tomorrow's big game:
Quarterbacks
I have a feeling about Donovan McNabb going into this game. I think he's going to blow up.
Aside from Michael Vick, there isn't a QB in the game today who moves around as well as McNabb. He's not a runner, he's a quarterback who can run, and his best moves are in the pocket. The Patriots haven't faced a guy like McNabb this year. Roethlisberger is mobile, but he can't do what McNabb can do with his feet. New England can contain him easy enough, and keep him away from the kind of long run that destroyed the Browns in overtime (NE won't have Tyrone Rogers losing containment on Sunday either). But he has also turned into an outstanding passer, unlike Roethlisberger. He certainly looked outstanding against the Browns. Very #7-esque.
Brady is almost a given. If you give him the ball in a tie game late in the Super Bowl, you can pretty much forget it. He manages his offense. He doesn't mind getting 98 yards passing if his team wins. His accuracy makes him a drive-extender. He was drafted behind Spurgeon Wynn and now he has two Super Bowl rings and is banging that girl from I, Robot. He'll probably do all right. However... there is one caveat. Every now and again some gear in Brady's head will seize up and he'll do something egregiously stupid. He threw one dumb interception in the end zone in the '03 AFC title game, and threw another in the Super Bowl, keeping the Panthers within one score of a lead they quickly took. He won both of those games, but a few weeks ago, he threw a horrible pick without even looking against the Dolphins, up by five with less than two minutes left. After Miami scored to take the lead, Brady went out there and was picked off again. Not to say he'll do it here! But he might.
Running Game
The Browns ran for 165 yards and stayed in the game early against Philadelphia by sending Suggs and Green right at the middle of their defense. The following week the Steelers went for a whopping 252 and gave the Eagles their first loss. Philly's defense is a little like Indy's; undersized, fast, good pass rushers but liable to getting muscled. Atlanta was unable to take advantage of this achilles heel because their ground game (statistically the second-best in the league) is built around a quaterback and Warrick Dunn, with the power man being the least of the trioka. If by chance the Eagles get the lead, they may be able to turn their rushers loose on Tom Brady and pressure him into throwing bad balls into what might be the league's best secondary. If New England is leading, this strategy will be null and void. The Patriots will simply feed the Eagles D a steady diet of Dillon, Kevin Faulk, and more Dillon. And if the game is close late, I'm not too sure about the wisdom of blitzing a quarterback who is as pinpoint in the clutch as Tom Brady.
The Eagles won't be able to run the ball effectively against the Patriots. I hate to be the kind of asshole that makes absolute statements about something that hasn't happened yet, but... do you see Brian Westbrook hitting 100 yards against New England's D? Neither do I. But even if the Eagles don't run well, they'll still have a chance to win. Philadelphia doesn't run well (24th), aren't particularly adept at stopping the run (16th), yet they're 13-3 and representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Obviously they're flexible.
 | Brady's Brain-Fart vs. Miami |
Wide Receivers
New England's strength in this area is its versatility. They've got possession receivers (Troy Brown). They've got speedsters/game breakers (Deion Branch). They've got home-run hitters (David Patten). They've got down-the-seam guys (Daniel Graham). They've got guys who can catch coming out of the backfield (Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass). And when they're on the goal line, they can insert a linebacker who can catch (Vrabel) into the game.
Philadelphia's receivers aren't nearly so diverse in their talents, although they do talk a much better game than the Patriots. Without TO, Philly's receiving corps isn't even as good as Cleveland's. As for TO playing or not playing... well, it probably couldn't hurt Philly to have a healthy TO out there, but ya gotta think Belichick and Crennel are going to figure out a way to keep TO from lighting up their defense. And if TO does play, you can be damned sure he'll get broken up if he goes over the middle. New England's defense has a foul disposition for guys who go between the hashmarks. TO can get a case of 'gator arms' every now and then, a fact Jeff Garcia could have brought up at some point in that one-sided 'feud' of theirs.
(I like how a tawdry sort like Garcia 'took the high road' with TO. Bwa ha ha. He's got chicks attacking each other in clubs over him. Give me a break. Too bad he wasn't that circumspect the rest of the time of what I sincerely hope was his short-ass sojourn in Cleveland. He wasn't enlightening anybody with his complaining about the offense. He probably just doesn't want TO to beat him up if the two happen to bump into each other somewhere.)
Kicking Game
This matchup would be a straight push, if not for the fact that Adam Vinatieri has made two game-winning field goals in the Super Bowl. David Akers is a darned good kicker, one of the best in the league, but we don't know for sure how he would react in a game-winning or game-tying situation in a Super Bowl, because he's never been in that situation before. I have a feeling he would do just fine. But I know how Vinatieri would fare.
Overall
Like I said, McNabb might have to win this game on his own. In a way, it's not about how the Patriots play, because we know how they're going to play. They're the Patriots. They're going to play very well. It's about what kind of Eagles team takes the field on Sunday. The hurdle to Philadelphia this decade has been the NFC Championship Game. Theyr'e over it. How are they going to approach this game, mentally? For some teams in their situation, the game has been gravy, and they've come out sloppy and gotten beat. The 1980 Eagles did this- after they beat the hated Cowboys at the Vet in the NFC title game, they had nothing left for Super Bowl and the Raiders, who should have been golfing or hunting or whatever it is players do after they lose in the playoffs (sorry) kicked the s--t out of them. The '77 Broncos, the '85 Pats- they used it all up just to get there. Will Philly? Or will they be as hipshot as they appear to be, play with nothing to lose, play loose, and have a chance at the end?
My prediction? Well, I can't pick against the Patriots. That would be like picking the 49ers to lose a Super Bowl in the '80s, or the Steelers to lose one in the '70s. You just can't do it. Having said that, I believe McNabb will play well enough to keep his team in it. The Eagles will still have a chance to win this game in the fourth quarter. But they won't.
Final Score: New England 34, Philadelphia 27
 |
